This will be another light week before the next large releases of the CPI and PPI data. The overall unemployment numbers have been trending lower which will likely leave the Federal Reserve board in a state of suspension. They have made many assertive statements they do not intend to cut rates soon, but the signs of a soft landing for the economy are numerous, leading to much speculation about impending rate cuts. As a general indicator, lending partners have seen a near 6 week-to-week decline in lending rates. The largest data releases this week are the U.S. Unemployment Reports and Non-Farm Payroll data releases.
Non-farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate
Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 199,000 in November, and the unemployment rate
edged down to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in
health care and government. Employment also increased in manufacturing, reflecting the return of
workers from a strike. Employment in retail trade declined.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
The numbers: An ISM barometer of business conditions at service companies such as restaurants and hotels rebounded to 52.7% in November from a five-month low of 51.8% in the prior month.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected the index to rise to 52.4%. Numbers over 50% indicate expansion in the economy.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
Last 6 weeks have seen a week-to-week decline in rates.
- 15-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.27% with the current rate at 6.29%
- 30-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.19% with the current rate at 7.03%
MND Rate Index
- 30-Yr FHA rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.43%
- 30-Yr VA rates rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.45%
Jobless Claims
Initial claims have increased to 220,000 compared to the expected claims of 223,000. The prior week was 219,000.
What’s Ahead
Next week is an important release schedule with the final CPI and PPI reports, released on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. With this final release along with the final GDP release cycle, it should give the Federal Reserve the final numbers to move ahead with a plan for next year, which seems likely to include rate cuts.